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☆ 2 reasons why the South will stay the hottest housing market in the US
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The hottest housing market in America is poised to see continued price gains, according to Capital Economics. The firm said strong employment trends bode well for the housing market in the south. "We think the southern markets will continue to outperform over the next few years," Capital Economics said. AdvertisementAmerica's hottest housing market will see more price gains over the course of the next few years, according to Capital Economics. The research firm said in a note on Monday that America's southern housing market is poised to see continued strength thanks to two big trends: strong employment and relative affordability.

Persons: bode, —, Thomas Ryan Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Business Locations: America

☆ Capital Economics says strong wage gains mean the Bank of Japan will likely hike rates in March
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCapital Economics says strong wage gains mean the Bank of Japan will likely hike rates in MarchMarcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific for Capital Economics, discusses the outlook for the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

Persons: Marcel Thieliant Organizations: Email Capital, Bank of, Capital Economics, Bank Locations: Bank of Japan, Asia, Pacific

☆ Trump 2.0 would threaten Mexico's new status as America's top trade partner
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A second Trump presidential term poses a risk to Mexico's status as the US's top trade partner. According to Capital Economics, Trump 2.0 threatens Mexico's newly gained status. In a Tuesday note, Capital Economics strategists said much of the impact would hinge on whether the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) deal remains intact. To Capital Economics, Mexico is one of the most vulnerable emerging markets as far as repercussions to this potential move. Mexico's trade with the US accounts for about one-third of its GDP.

Persons: Trump, —, Donald Trump, USMCA Organizations: Trump, Capital Economics, Service, Capital, North America Free Trade, US Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers Locations: Mexico, China, Canada, US, shoring

☆ China's economic plans make a trade war likely whether Biden or Trump wins the presidency
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's surge in exports means a trade conflict is likely under either presidential candidate, Capital Economics said. The nation now makes up 15% of global manufacturing exports, which it will have to unload onto US consumers. He sees it as a consequence of the pandemic, when outsized lockdown demand ignited China's manufacturing sector, and output has jumped over 25% since 2019. Miller estimated that a trade war could start as soon as next year. During his tenure in the White House, he led a tit-for-tat trade war with Beijing, with many of its policies still in place under President Joe Biden.

Persons: —, Mr Trump, Neil Shearing, Shearing, Leland Miller, it's, They're, they're, Miller, Donald Trump's, Trump, Joe Biden Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, White, Washington, Capital, Democrat, CNBC Locations: China, Beijing, Europe

☆ Turkey opts for new tightening strategy after signaling a pause to hikes
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A picture taken on August 14, 2018 shows the logo of Turkey's Central Bank at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey. Turkey's central bank is opting for a different monetary tightening method as it grapples with climbing inflation, after previously signaling that its rate-hiking cycle was over. The institution sent a directive to lenders, effective Friday, instructing them to put parts of their required lira reserves into blocked accounts. Economic data platform Emerging Market Watch posted on X, describing the central bank as taking "another tightening step via reserve requirements." "Last week the CBRT tightened restrictions on lira loan growth, a move that would likely have a similar impact to an interest rate hike."

Persons: That's, Arda Tunca, Dan Murphy Organizations: Turkey's Central Bank, Reuters, CNBC, Capital Economics, FX, Economics Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Turkey's, Istanbul, Turkish, London

☆ Why weight-loss drugs like Ozempic are a game-changer for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Capital Economics said weight-loss drugs could be game-changers for the world economy. Eventually, AI could supercharge the healthcare sector, so weight-loss drugs could be just the beginning. Capital Economics noted that share prices fell in 2023 for many fast-food companies as weight-loss drugs gained popularity, though some of those losses have since been pared. Weight-loss drugs and AIGLP-1 drugs' emergence, meanwhile, has happened alongside the explosion of artificial intelligence technology and hype. If so, the economic gains heralded by weight-loss drugs might be just the beginning."

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, Eli Lilly Organizations: Service, Capital Economics, Nordisk, Organization, Economic Cooperation, Development Locations: Mexico, America, Denmark, Korea

Measured year over year, producer prices rose by 1.6% in February, the most since last September. Core wholesale prices rose 0.3%, down from a 0.5% jump the previous month. Photos You Should See View All 60 ImagesThe producer price index can provide an early read on where consumer inflation is headed. Compared with a year earlier, prices rose 3.2%, up from a 3.1% increase rise the previous month. Still, February's acceleration in producer prices suggested that inflation could stay elevated into the spring.

Persons: Biden, Joe Biden's, doesn't, Jerome Powell Organizations: WASHINGTON, —, Federal Reserve, The Labor Department, Fed, Capital Economics, CPI, Wall Locations: United States

☆ Markets are eyeing a June rate cut. Here's what Fed officials have said on policy, jobs, and inflation that point to the next steps.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Fed officials have said rate cuts are coming soon, but inflation must still cool further. Markets are placing the greatest odds on a rate cut in June, fed fund futures show. AdvertisementFederal Reserve officials have said interest rate cuts are coming this year, but there's not an exact date in their outlook just yet. Those expectations were little changed after Tuesday's inflation report, which showed CPI came in hotter than expected in February. Reducing our policy rate too soon could result in requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent in the longer run."

Persons: —, there's, CME's, Jerome Powell, " Neel Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Christopher Waller Organizations: Service, Federal, Bank of America, Capital, Capital Economics, Labor

☆ Oil prices up on strong U.S. demand, Fed signals in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Oil prices rose on Wednesday on expectations of strong global demand, including in the world's top consumer the United States, and as even somewhat sticky U.S. inflation did not dent expectations the Fed might start cutting rates soon. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, stuck to its forecast of a strong oil demand growth globally of 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025 and raised its economic growth forecast for this year. In another indication of healthy demand, U.S. crude oil inventories and fuel inventories fell last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Lower rates support oil demand. Oil prices were under pressure in the previous session after the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised domestic oil output forecast but declines were limited on expectations that OPEC+ output cuts will still slow global oil growth and on the recent wave of drone attacks on Russia, including refineries.

Persons: Brent Organizations: West Texas, of, Petroleum, American Petroleum Institute, Reserve, U.S . Energy, Administration Locations: Taft, Kern County , California, United States, Russia

☆ China's valuations are 'way too low,' strategist says — here's why
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesValuations of Chinese stocks are "way too low" and investors should be looking to cautiously re-enter the world's second-largest economy, according to Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group. However, Rein attributed this to the Lunar New Year period, and insisted that deflation "still looms over the Chinese economy." "They're cautious about whether or not the government is going to launch a bazooka-like stimulus — clearly they're not going to." "But we think China's low inflation is a symptom of its growth model built on a high rate of investment. As reducing dependence on investment is still far off, we expect inflation to stay low in the long run."

Persons: Shaun Rein, Rein, CNBC's, Huang Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, China Market Research Group, Capital Economics Locations: China

☆ Premarket stocks: The rent is too damn high. It’s keeping interest rates elevated, too
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

In short, the rent is too damn high — and it’s keeping inflation and interest rates elevated alongside it. We’ll see if they’re right on Tuesday morning when February’s CPI data is due out. “Shelter inflation has been a big focal point for the market,” they wrote in a note on Monday. “We remain confident that [rent prices] will flatline in 2024, rather than fall,” Capital Economics analyst Thomas Ryan wrote in a recent note. That means a current deceleration in rent prices won’t be fully factored into inflation data until February 2025.

Persons: Greg McBride, ”, Jerome Powell, “ It’s, Powell, aren’t, “, Thomas Ryan, Ritti Singh, Singh, won’t, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, Clare Duffy, Reddit, it’s, That’s, Matt Egan, Joe Biden, Bespoke’s Paul Hickey, ” Hickey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, CPI, Bank of America, ” Capital, Housing Justice, Fed, Dallas Fed, AAA, Federal, Investment Locations: New York

☆ Consumer prices rose 0.4% in February and 3.2% from a year ago
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%. With home prices expected to rise this year and rents falling only slowly, the long-awaited fall in shelter prices isn't coming to the rescue any time soon," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty ImagesAirline fares posted a 3.6% increase, apparel prices rose 0.6% and used vehicles were up 0.5%.

Persons: Dow Jones, Robert Frick, February's, Patrick T, Fallon, Jerome Powell, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dow, BLS, Navy Federal Credit Union, AFP, Getty, North, Capital Economics Locations: Redondo Beach , California, North America

☆ 'Porous' sanctions haven't stopped Russia's war, but there's still more the West can do to squeeze its economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-10 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

According to Peach, sanctions haven't halted money from non-Western countries flowing to Russia. Even G7's bid to curb export income through a $60 per barrel cap on the price of oil hasn't really hobbled Moscow's oil trade. The West has reduced imports of Russian energy significantly but Russia has largely re-routed oil exports to Asia." Peach wrote that the West could squeeze Russian energy more by slapping secondary sanctions on third-party purchases of oil and gas from the country. AdvertisementBut it's unlikely for the West to take this path, he added, given Russia's energy dominance and the risk of sparking volatility that could end up antagonizing partners like India.

Persons: —, Vladimir Putin, Owen Matthews ,, Putin, Liam Peach, Peach, Matthews, Russia mobilizes Organizations: Service, Business, Capital Economics, Export, Central Bank of Russia, Russia, China Goods Trade, SA Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Russia, Nord, Turkey, UAE, Asia, Europe, Russian, China, Dubai, American, India

☆ Oil prices up as world's top consumers boost demand
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices rose Friday due to increased demand in the U.S. and China, the world's top oil consumers, and a positive signal from the Fed on potential rate cuts. Oil prices rose on Friday, driven by growing demand in the United States and China, the world's biggest oil consumers, and as the U.S. Federal Reserve gave a positive signal on possibility of rate cuts. Both fell more than expected in a sign of a strong demand. Providing additional support to oil prices, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the U.S. central bank was "not far" from gaining enough confidence that inflation is falling to begin cutting interest rates. In Canada, TC Energy's Keystone oil pipeline resumed service on Thursday after going offline and temporarily restricting a major conduit of Canadian oil to the United States — one of the factors supporting prices in the previous session.

Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Brent, . West Texas, Energy Information Administration, ANZ Research, Capital Economics, TC, Keystone Locations: U.S, China, United States, Canada

☆ The housing market may finally be thawing as mortgage rates and housing inventory improve
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Mortgage rates eased for the first time in five weeks, Freddie Mac said Thursday. Easing affordability and improving inventory suggests a gradual thawing of the market. "It's important to remember that rates can vary widely between mortgage lenders so shopping around is essential." However, Capital Economics strategists wrote earlier in the week that easing mortgage rates won't be enough to spark a meaningful, lasting rebound in home demand. Advertisement"Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate 'lock in' will continue to curb home moves," Capital Economics strategists wrote in a note.

Persons: Freddie Mac, —, — that's, Freddie Mac's, Sam Khater, Jerome Powell, Realtor.com, that's Organizations: Service, Capital

☆ China's real estate slump is about to get worse
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Capital Economics said the "unavoidable structural decline" in China's property sector has only just begun. AdvertisementSeveral years in and China's prolonged real estate slump has been well-documented, but the landscape may be about to deteriorate further as construction enters a deeper correction, Capital Economics said in a note Wednesday. AdvertisementResidential real estate activity in China Capital Economics, CEICSizable infrastructure support has prevented construction from falling as much as anticipated. As Capital Economics highlights, real estate construction remains an opaque measurement in China. In Capital Economics' view, Beijing will drag it out longer so that it doesn't fully materialize until 2030.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Economics, China Capital Economics, Capital Economics, Capital Locations: China's, Beijing, China

☆ Egypt hikes interest rates by 600 basis points, pound crumbles to record low
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Egypt's pound hit a record low against the dollar on Wednesday after its central bank hiked interest rates by 600 points and devalued the currency. The Egyptian pound was trading at roughly 50 to the dollar following the announcement, from 30.85 previously, according to LSEG data. The country's key interest rate now stands at 27.25%, the central bank said Wednesday. Egypt, the Arab world's most populous country at roughly 110 million people, is facing a protracted shortage of foreign currency. "In preparation for the successful implementation of these measures, sufficient funding has been secured to avail foreign exchange liquidity."

Persons: James Swanston, Egypt's Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Economics, United, IMF, Monetary, Government, P Global Market Intelligence Locations: Egypt, East, Africa, London, United Arab Emirates, Cairo

☆ UK Budget: Jeremy Hunt set to cut taxes for workers as election looms
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

A cut to national insurance — a levy paid by people who work — costing around £10 billion ($12.7 billion) is likely, according to multiple UK media reports. But soaring government debt, crumbling public services and a lackluster economy leave the chancellor with very little room for further substantial giveaways. Christopher Furlong/Getty ImagesOther so-called “unprotected” areas of the national budget, such as social care and the police force, are also at risk. “That seems unlikely when public services are creaking,” they added. OBR chair Richard Hughes said in January that the government had provided no detailed breakdown of departmental spending plans beyond March next year, giving only headline figures.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Rishi Sunak’s, Hunt, ”, Laura Kuenssberg, Jeff, Christopher Furlong, “, Richard Hughes, ” Hughes Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, Treasury, “ Conservatives, ” Hunt’s Conservative Party, Labour Party, Reuters, Office, National Statistics, Local Government Association, House, National Health Service, Capital Economics, ” Locations: Ukraine, Birmingham, England

☆ Dollar a spectator to China news, yen ponders rate risks
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

There was more action in bitcoin , which gained 1.2% to $68,341 after surging more than 7% on Monday. The Japanese yen held steady after data showed Tokyo core inflation sped up to 2.5% in February, from 1.8% the previous month. "Accordingly, we're sticking to our forecast that the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates into positive territory next month." The dollar was a fraction lower at 150.44 yen , having again shied away from resistance around 150.85, which has capped the currency for more than three months now. The European Central Bank, or ECB, holds a meeting on Thursday and markets are convinced it will keep rates at 4.0%.

Persons: Marcel Thieliant, Jerome Powell, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt Organizations: People's Congress, Bank of Japan's, Capital Economics, Bank of, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Westpac, . Finance Locations: China, Tokyo, Japan, bitcoin, United States, Beijing, Asia, Bank of Japan

☆ Nigeria battles to halt spiraling currency crisis and rising food insecurity
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

IBADAN, Nigeria - Feb. 19, 2024: Demonstrators hold placards during a protest against the hike in price and hard living conditions in Ibadan on February 19, 2024. Inflation hit an annual 29.9% in January, driven by soaring food prices that have triggered a cost-of-living crisis in Africa's largest economy. The naira currency, meanwhile, plunged to an all-time low of around 1,600 against the U.S. dollar in late February. "With about 8 percent of Nigerians deemed food insecure, addressing rising food insecurity is the immediate policy priority." IBADAN, Nigeria - Feb. 19, 2024: Demonstrators are seen at a protest against the hike in price and hard living conditions in Ibadan on February 19, 2024.

Persons: Samuel Alabi, Bola Tinubu's, David Omojomolo, Olayemi Cardoso Organizations: Afp, Getty Images, International Monetary Fund, U.S, Bloomberg, Getty, Washington, D.C, IMF, Central Bank of, Capital Economics Locations: IBADAN, Nigeria, Ibadan, Getty Images Nigeria, Africa's, LAGOS, Lagos, Africa

☆ The mortgage 'lock-in' effect is here to stay and home prices won't fall for years to come, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Easing mortgage rates won't fully unwind the "lock in" effect, Capital Economics said. Home moves and market activity will remain muted even if borrowing costs become more attractive. "Even if mortgage rates fall to 6% as we expect, mortgage rate 'lock in' will continue to curb home moves," Capital Economics strategists said. In the research group's view, housing market activity will remain muted as competition for homes stays tight and affordability remains historically low. The strategists expect mortgage rates, too, will continue to trend above pre-pandemic levels.

Persons: — Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Capital

☆ Turkish annual inflation soars to 67% in February
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Turkish annual consumer price inflation soared to 67.07% in February, the Turkish Statistical Institute said Monday, coming in above expectations. Analysts polled by Reuters had anticipated annual inflation would climb to 65.7% last month. The combined sector of hotels, cafes and restaurants saw the greatest annual price inflation increase at 94.78%, followed by education at 91.84%, while the rate for health stood at 81.25% and transportation at 77.98%, according to the statistical institute. "Obviously a disappointing set of inflation prints this morning," Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, wrote in a note. He added that this development has "continued to put downward pressure on the lira," creating an inflation pass-through.

Persons: Liam Peach, Mehmet Simsek, Turkey's, Timothy Ash, Ash Organizations: Turkish Statistical Institute, Reuters, Food, Economics, Capital Economics, Turkish, BlueBay Asset Management, FX Locations: Sariyer, Istanbul, Turkish, London

☆ Premarket stocks: Retailers warn Wall Street to expect less shopping this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Lowe’s: The home improvement giant projected total sales of $84 billion to $85 billion for 2024 in fourth-quarter results reported on Tuesday. Mortgage rates edge closer to 7%, dampening start of spring homebuying seasonUS mortgage rates climbed for the fourth week in a row, inching closer to 7% just as peak homebuying season gets underway, reports my colleague Anna Bahney. “Mortgage rates continued their ascent this week, reaching a two-month high and flirting with 7% yet again,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a statement. Since reaching a 20-year high of 7.79% in October, mortgage rates have been slowly falling. But in recent weeks, as the market absorbs expectations that the Federal Reserve will not cut its benchmark lending rate until later this year, mortgage rates have trended higher.

Persons: they’re, ”, Marvin Ellison, Macy’s, Tony Spring, Corie Barry, ’, ” Barry, Diksha Madhok, Hanna Ziady, “, Thamashi De Silva, Knight Frank, Read, Anna Bahney, Freddie Mac, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Khater Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN — Companies, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, United States’s, Gross, Capital Economics, “ Locations: New York, That’s, India

☆ Wall Street takes bets on which major central bank will blink first
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Brendan McDermid | Reuterswatch nowSwiss headline inflation fell from 1.7% in December to 1.3% in January, well below consensus forecasts, while core inflation dropped from 1.5% to 1.2%. Analysts at Capital Economics said the steep decline meant inflation "looks sure to undershoot the SNB's Q1 forecast of 1.8%." "However, with the January inflation downside surprise, the SNB forecast looks too high to us, and the probability of a policy rate cut on 21 March has increased. Bank of Japan to end negative rate era While most major central banks are looking at loosening monetary policy after more than two years of aggressive tightening to combat rampant inflation, the question for the Bank of Japan is the opposite. The country's core inflation rate — which excludes food and energy — fell to 2% year-on-year in January, after a third monthly increase, surprising slightly to the upside and suggesting that a sustainable return to ultra-low inflation may not be in the cards.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Société Générale, Kit Juckes Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, Capital Economics, UBS, Bank of Japan, Bank of Locations: New York City, U.S, Bank of Japan, French

☆ India GDP: Country’s economy ended 2023 ‘with a bang’ as growth surged to 8.4%
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Gross domestic product in India surged 8.4% in the final three months of 2023 compared with a year prior, up from growth of 7.6% in the June-to-September period, the country’s statistics office said Thursday. The latest rise is much stronger than analysts expected and means India’s economy “ended last year with a bang,” Thamashi De Silva, assistant India economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note. “That pace of growth was the strongest among major economies last quarter,” she said, also noting that in 2023 as a whole GDP grew 7.7%. Analysts at Jefferies expect the country to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2027, up from fifth currently. But “any slowdown in growth will be mild, particularly as the government’s infrastructure drive is likely to prop up activity,” she added.

Persons: “, Thamashi De Silva, ”, Narendra Modi, Elon Musk, India “, Modi, ” Musk, De Silva Organizations: London CNN, Gross, Capital Economics, Monetary Fund, Jefferies, Apple Locations: India, China, Washington, Beijing

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